The Real and the Trade Surplus

From Bloomberg this morning:

Brazil's Real Gains After Trade Surplus Increased in August

By Adriana Brasileiro

Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The real gained as a widening trade surplus in August boosted speculation that rising dollar flows will support the local currency.

The real rose 0.4 percent to 1.9540 reais per dollar at 3:36 p.m. New York time. The yield on Brazil's benchmark zero-coupon bonds due January 2008 fell 4 basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 11.19 percent, according to Banco UBS Pactual SA.

``The outlook is for inflows to stay strong this year, protecting the real from external shocks,'' said Reginaldo Galhardo, currency director of Treviso Corretora, a Sao Paulo brokerage.

Brazil's trade surplus widened to $3.54 billion in August from $3.35 billion the previous month, the Trade Ministry said in a report on its Web site. It exceeded the $3.1 billion median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 18 economists.

Exports rose to a record $15.1 billion last month from $14.1 billion in July, while imports also increased to a record $11.6 billion from $10.8 billion in July, the ministry said.