Brazil Retail Sales January 2008

Brazil's retail sales rose 11.8 percent in January from January 2007, the national statistics agency said. Retail, supermarket and grocery store sales, as measured by units sold, rose more than the revised 9.5 percent increase in December, the national statistic agency said today.

Brazil Consumer Inflation February 2008

Brazilian inflation slowed in February for a second straight month, reducing the likelihood that the central bank won't be raising rates in the immediate future. Brazil's consumer prices rose 0.49 percent in February from January, the national statistic agency said today. Inflation, as measured by the benchmark IPCA index, decelerated from 0.54 percent month on month rate in January. The annual inflation rate in February remained above the central bank's 4.5 percent target for a second consecutive month, and the year on year rate was up to 4.61 percent in the 12 months up to February from 4.56 percent between January 2007 and January 2008.



The central bank ended its longest cycle of monetary easing last October after a surge in food prices coupled with rising consumer demand raised the chances inflation could accelerate above the 4.5 percent annual target. Policy makers voted last week to hold rates at a record low 11.25 percent for a fourth straight meeting.


Education prices, fueled by seasonal tuition increases, jumped 3.47 percent in February, accounting for almost half of the gain in the IPCA index last month.

Food and beverages inflation, largely responsible for putting the annual rate over target this year, slowed to 0.60 percent in February from 1.52 percent in January.

Brazil's Central Bank Holds Interest Rates

Brazil's central bank kept the overnight rate unchanged for a fourth straight meeting as slowing inflation bolstered confidence the bank's annual target will be met. Policy makers, led by bank President Henrique Meirelles, held the benchmark interest rate at a record low 11.25 percent. Monthly inflation, measured by the benchmark IPCA index, slowed in January to 0.54 percent from 0.74 percent a month earlier.

The central bank brought Brazil's longest cycle of monetary easing since at least 1999 to a halt last October after higher food prices coupled with the fastest economic expansion in more than three years raised concern that inflation could overshoot policy makers' 4.5 inflation target.

Annual inflation in Brazil has been steadily increasing from an eight- year low of 2.96 percent last March to 4.74 percent through mid-February. Since January, the 12-month inflation rate has persistently exceeded the mid-point of the central bank's target of 4.5 percent plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Meat and milk prices were the main driver of inflation in the second half of last year. Food prices in 2007 jumped 10.8 percent, the most in five years, fueled by rising worldwide consumer demand for commodities. Monthly food price inflation decelerated to 1.52 percent in January from a five-year high of 2.06 percent in December.

The yield on the inter-bank deposit contract for Jan. 2, 2009, which reveals trader's future interest rate bets, fell to 11.69 percent from 12.07 percent on Dec. 28. Record-low interest rates coupled with record bank lending has stoked a surge in demand for consumer goods such as home appliances and cars in what is Latin America's biggest economy.

Retail sales were up by 9.6 percent in 2007, the biggest gain since the national statistic agency started the current series in 2001, while industrial output rose less than expected in January, increasing by 8.5 percent from January 2007.

The Real Continues Its Upward March

Brazil's real strengthened for an eighth straight day today, alomst reaching a nine-year high, as a tumbling U.S. dollar and surging commodity prices boosted demand for the currency. The real has jumped 4.8 percent since Feb. 15, making it the biggest gainer against U.S. dollar among the world's 16 most actively traded currencies during the period. The consecutive gains are the longest winning streak since November 2005.

Bolstering the currency's allure today were comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke suggesting that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower US interest rates, widening the yield advantages of Brazilian bonds and equities.

The real rose 0.65 percent to 1.6731 per dollar at 10:28 a.m. New York time, up from 1.6839 per dollar yesterday. At one point it touched 1.6734, the most since May 1999. The currency has strengthened 28 percent in the past 12 months, also the biggest gain among the major currencies against the dollar.

Brazil's real interest rate, calculated by subtracting annual inflation of 4.56 percent from the 11.25 percent Selic benchmark lending rate, is 6.79 percent.

Crude oil also rose above $102 a barrel today, the highest dollar level ever, as the weakening dollar led investors to buy commodities as a hedge against inflation. Brazil exports the crude oil it pumps from what are the deepest waters in the world, with recent discoveries in fields as deep as 6 kilometers (3.7 miles).

Commodity sales helped Brazilian exports rise to a record $160.6 billion in 2007. Brazil will export as much as $180 billion this year, according to Trade Ministry estimates.

Brazil Becomes Net Creditor for First Time in January 2008

Brazil, the world's largest emerging-market debtor for decades, became a net foreign creditor for the first time in January. International reserves, swelled by investment inflows and record exports of agricultural commodities and oil, probably exceeded gross foreign liabilities last month by about $4 billion, the Banco Central do Brasil said today in a report.

Brazil's shift to net creditor status may add to already growing investor confidence in what is Latin America's largest economy and help the country achieve investment-grade rating. Brazil finished paying off its debt to the International Monetary Fund in December 2005.


Brazilian exports have tripled since President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took office in 2003 on rising world demand for soybeans, iron-ore, beef and cars. An accompanying surge in foreign direct investment, including stock and bond purchases by non-residents, has led the currency to appreciate to what is its strongest level in more than eight years.

International reserves, including cash and other financial assets, rose to a record $171.6 billion in January, more than ten times the $17 billion that the country had when Lula assumed power. At the end of 2003, Brazil's debt topped international reserves by $165 billion, the bank said.

Foreign bond buyers have been lured by the prospect Brazil could attain an investment grade rating this year or next, making the country's bonds the world's second-best performer over the past five years, returning 191 percent, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. data. Only Ecuadorean bonds, which gained 234 percent, rose more.

Brazil's foreign currency debt rating of BB+ by Standard & Poor's and Ba1 by Moody's Investors Service are both one level below investment grade. Investment-grade standing gives a country greater access to international capital at lower borrowing costs.

The yield to the 2015 call date on Brazil's 11 percent bonds due in 2040, one of the most widely traded emerging-market securities, fell 9 basis points, or 0.09 percentage point, to 5.59 percent, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The bond's price rose 0.6 cent to 132.65 cents on the dollar.

The world economic slowdown may test whether Brazil's efforts to diversify export markets and bulk up reserves are enough to safeguard long-term growth after almost five years of record commodity exports and low borrowing costs.

An over-dependence on commodity sales abroad may cut Brazil's growth to 3 percent this year from about 5 percent should a slowing U.S. economy reduce demand, according to a Morgan Stanley report released Dec. 10.


The real rose for a fourth straight session, advancing 0.8 percent to 1.7095 per dollar today. It touched 1.7046 earlier in the day, the strongest level since May 1999. The central bank has purchased U.S. dollars in currency markets almost every day since July 2006 to slow the real's appreciation and increase international reserves.

In a separate report, the bank and the National Treasury said that local and foreign debt fell 1.7 percent to 1.31 trillion reais in January from December. The stock of local debt, which makes up 90 percent of total Brazilian liabilities, fell 1.7 percent and foreign debt dropped 1.4 percent last month, both institutions said.