From Bloomberg:
Brazil's unemployment rate fell to 9.5 percent in November, the lowest rate in 10 months, the national statistics agency said.
Unemployment in Brazil's six largest metropolitan areas declined from 9.8 percent in October, the Rio de Janeiro-based agency said in a statement today. The rate was less than the median forecast of 9.7 percent in a Bloomberg survey of 20 economists. The jobless rate was 9.6 percent in November 2005.
Household monthly income, adjusted for inflation, rose 5.7 percent from the same month of last year to 1,056.60 reais ($489), the agency said. It increased 0.6 percent from October.
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Thursday, December 21, 2006
Sunday, December 17, 2006
Industrial Output Rises 4.8 Percent in October
Brazil's industrial output rose 4.8 percent in October, which was the fastest pace in five months. It seems the impact of 12 interest rate cuts in a row are now beginning to filter down into the economy.
Output expanded 4.8 from the same month last year, compared with 1.3 percent rise in September, Brazil's National Statistics Agency said in Rio de Janeiro today. The increase was in line with the median 4.8 percent forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 21 economists.
``Recent economic reports, such as faster job creation in manufacturing, point to stronger industrial production in the fourth quarter and make me believe that the worst is over,'' Zeina Latif, an economist with ABN Amro Bank NV's Brazilian unit, said in a phone interview from Sao Paulo.
The central bank has slashed the benchmark lending rate 6.5 percentage points to 13.25 percent since September 2005 in a bid to bolster a flagging economic recovery. The lowest lending rates in at least two decades and the prospect of additional cuts in 2007 has begun to stoke consumer demand for goods such as cars, thus helping boost production, Latif said.
Registrations of new cars, sport utility vehicles and trucks made in Brazil and abroad rose 15 percent in November to 182,732, the highest level this year, after expanding 27 percent in October from a year earlier, the fastest pace in more than two years, according to the country's automakers association, known as Anfavea, in a report published today.
Manufacturing employment increased 3.3 percent in October from a year earlier, the fastest pace since in seven months, a Confederation of Brazilian Industry report said Dec. 5.
Output expanded 4.8 from the same month last year, compared with 1.3 percent rise in September, Brazil's National Statistics Agency said in Rio de Janeiro today. The increase was in line with the median 4.8 percent forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 21 economists.
``Recent economic reports, such as faster job creation in manufacturing, point to stronger industrial production in the fourth quarter and make me believe that the worst is over,'' Zeina Latif, an economist with ABN Amro Bank NV's Brazilian unit, said in a phone interview from Sao Paulo.
The central bank has slashed the benchmark lending rate 6.5 percentage points to 13.25 percent since September 2005 in a bid to bolster a flagging economic recovery. The lowest lending rates in at least two decades and the prospect of additional cuts in 2007 has begun to stoke consumer demand for goods such as cars, thus helping boost production, Latif said.
Registrations of new cars, sport utility vehicles and trucks made in Brazil and abroad rose 15 percent in November to 182,732, the highest level this year, after expanding 27 percent in October from a year earlier, the fastest pace in more than two years, according to the country's automakers association, known as Anfavea, in a report published today.
Manufacturing employment increased 3.3 percent in October from a year earlier, the fastest pace since in seven months, a Confederation of Brazilian Industry report said Dec. 5.
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
Brazil Coffee Scarcity Looms
Again from Bloomberg:
October rains came too late for trees in Brazil's prime coffee-growing region to recover from the driest winter in two decades. Few of the plants have flowered properly, meaning next season's harvest will be meager.
Forecasters say output in the world's largest coffee- producing nation will fall to a four-year low. That has pushed up futures prices by 10 percent in the past month to $1.2265 a pound on the New York Board of Trade. Prices may rise to as much as $1.35 a pound in coming months as farmers like Oliveira hold back supplies.
From May to September, Guaxupe received only 80.6 millimeters (3.2 inches) of rain, compared with 250 millimeters a year earlier, according to Cooxupe's Web site. The rainfall was the lowest since 1985.
Given the forecast drop in production, Cooxupe is advising farmers to sell the minimum from this year's harvest, says Mario Ferraz de Araujo, another of the cooperative's agronomists.
``We try to show them how to manage the sales to avoid financial difficulties later,'' says Araujo, 43. ``The farmers have become more aware of the advantage of selling at the right time.''
Global warming may lead to recurrent droughts, reducing world supplies of Arabica, says Jose Francisco Pereira, general director at Fazenda Monte Alegre, Brazil's third-largest coffee farm. That would lead roasters to increase Robusta coffee, which is more resistant to heat and drought, in their blends, Pereira says. The biggest producer of Robusta coffee is Vietnam, followed by Brazil and Indonesia.
October rains came too late for trees in Brazil's prime coffee-growing region to recover from the driest winter in two decades. Few of the plants have flowered properly, meaning next season's harvest will be meager.
Forecasters say output in the world's largest coffee- producing nation will fall to a four-year low. That has pushed up futures prices by 10 percent in the past month to $1.2265 a pound on the New York Board of Trade. Prices may rise to as much as $1.35 a pound in coming months as farmers like Oliveira hold back supplies.
From May to September, Guaxupe received only 80.6 millimeters (3.2 inches) of rain, compared with 250 millimeters a year earlier, according to Cooxupe's Web site. The rainfall was the lowest since 1985.
Given the forecast drop in production, Cooxupe is advising farmers to sell the minimum from this year's harvest, says Mario Ferraz de Araujo, another of the cooperative's agronomists.
``We try to show them how to manage the sales to avoid financial difficulties later,'' says Araujo, 43. ``The farmers have become more aware of the advantage of selling at the right time.''
Global warming may lead to recurrent droughts, reducing world supplies of Arabica, says Jose Francisco Pereira, general director at Fazenda Monte Alegre, Brazil's third-largest coffee farm. That would lead roasters to increase Robusta coffee, which is more resistant to heat and drought, in their blends, Pereira says. The biggest producer of Robusta coffee is Vietnam, followed by Brazil and Indonesia.
Brazil 2006 CPI Forecast Raised (Slightly)
According to Bloomberg Brazilian economists have increased their 2006 inflation forecast for a fifth week because of a rise in the cost of food.
Consumer prices in Brazil, Latin America's biggest economy, are forecast to rise 3.15 percent through the end of this year, more than a previous estimate of 3.08 percent, according to the median projection of about 100 economists in a central bank survey taken Nov. 24 and released today.
Brazil's monthly inflation, as measured by the government's IPCA-15 consumer price index, rose 0.37 percent in the 30 days through Nov. 13, compared with a 0.29 percent increase in the month ended Oct. 11, the National Statistics Agency said on Nov. 24.
``This hiccup in the prices of food will likely be reversed by yearend, reinforcing the view that the central bank will keep the current pace of rate cuts at its next policy meeting this week,'' Solange Srour, chief economist at Mellon Global Investment Brazil, said. She expects the central bank to lower the benchmark overnight rate a half-percentage point to 13.25 percent at its Nov. 29 policy meeting.
Brazilian economists also raised their 12-month inflation forecast to 4.17 percent from a previous estimate of 4.13 percent, the survey showed. They held 2007 inflation forecast at 4.1 percent. The central bank has an inflation target of 4.5 percent for 2006, 2007 and 2008.
``As the inflation outlook is still benign for next year and economic growth is moderate, monetary easing should continue in 2007,'' Srour said in a phone interview from Rio de Janeiro.
Brazil's economy will expand 2.94 percent this year, according to the survey, compared with the previous estimate of 2.95 percent. Economists predict growth will quicken to 3.5 percent in 2007.
The economists estimated the Brazilian currency will end this year weaker than previously forecast, with the real at 2.16 per dollar, compared with an earlier estimate of 2.15 per dollar, the survey showed. The currency, which traded at 2.1715 at 9:42 a.m. New York time, has fallen 1.3 percent this month, the second-worst performance of the 16 most-traded currencies.
The economists also raised their 2006 foreign direct investment forecast to $15.9 billion from $15.6 billion the previous week.
Consumer prices in Brazil, Latin America's biggest economy, are forecast to rise 3.15 percent through the end of this year, more than a previous estimate of 3.08 percent, according to the median projection of about 100 economists in a central bank survey taken Nov. 24 and released today.
Brazil's monthly inflation, as measured by the government's IPCA-15 consumer price index, rose 0.37 percent in the 30 days through Nov. 13, compared with a 0.29 percent increase in the month ended Oct. 11, the National Statistics Agency said on Nov. 24.
``This hiccup in the prices of food will likely be reversed by yearend, reinforcing the view that the central bank will keep the current pace of rate cuts at its next policy meeting this week,'' Solange Srour, chief economist at Mellon Global Investment Brazil, said. She expects the central bank to lower the benchmark overnight rate a half-percentage point to 13.25 percent at its Nov. 29 policy meeting.
Brazilian economists also raised their 12-month inflation forecast to 4.17 percent from a previous estimate of 4.13 percent, the survey showed. They held 2007 inflation forecast at 4.1 percent. The central bank has an inflation target of 4.5 percent for 2006, 2007 and 2008.
``As the inflation outlook is still benign for next year and economic growth is moderate, monetary easing should continue in 2007,'' Srour said in a phone interview from Rio de Janeiro.
Brazil's economy will expand 2.94 percent this year, according to the survey, compared with the previous estimate of 2.95 percent. Economists predict growth will quicken to 3.5 percent in 2007.
The economists estimated the Brazilian currency will end this year weaker than previously forecast, with the real at 2.16 per dollar, compared with an earlier estimate of 2.15 per dollar, the survey showed. The currency, which traded at 2.1715 at 9:42 a.m. New York time, has fallen 1.3 percent this month, the second-worst performance of the 16 most-traded currencies.
The economists also raised their 2006 foreign direct investment forecast to $15.9 billion from $15.6 billion the previous week.
Sunday, November 26, 2006
Brazil's Inflation
Brazil's inflation rate rose to an 8-month high of of 0.37% in November, while the y-o-y rate dropped to 2.99%, the lowest since 1999. This certainly takes the pressure off the central bank on interest rate policy:
Brazil's monthly inflation rate rose to an 8-month high through mid-November as the cost of food items such as meat and chicken soared.
Consumer prices, as measured by the government's IPCA-15 price index, rose 0.37 percent in the 30 days through Nov. 13, compared with a 0.29 percent increase in the previous month ended Oct. 11, Brazil's National Statistics Agency said today on its Web site.
The inflation rate is still low enough to allow the central bank to keep cutting its benchmark lending rate, said Joel Bogdanski, a senior economist at Banco Itau Holding Financeira SA. Annual inflation slowed to 2.99 percent in the 12 months through mid-November, the lowest since June 1999, from 3.26 percent at the end of October.
The central bank has trimmed the benchmark lending rate 6 percentage points in the past 14 months to 13.75 percent, the lowest in at least two decades. Bogdanski expects policy makers to cut the rate a half-percentage point at a meeting next week and reduce it to as low as 11 percent by the end of next year.
Brazil's monthly inflation rate rose to an 8-month high through mid-November as the cost of food items such as meat and chicken soared.
Consumer prices, as measured by the government's IPCA-15 price index, rose 0.37 percent in the 30 days through Nov. 13, compared with a 0.29 percent increase in the previous month ended Oct. 11, Brazil's National Statistics Agency said today on its Web site.
The inflation rate is still low enough to allow the central bank to keep cutting its benchmark lending rate, said Joel Bogdanski, a senior economist at Banco Itau Holding Financeira SA. Annual inflation slowed to 2.99 percent in the 12 months through mid-November, the lowest since June 1999, from 3.26 percent at the end of October.
The central bank has trimmed the benchmark lending rate 6 percentage points in the past 14 months to 13.75 percent, the lowest in at least two decades. Bogdanski expects policy makers to cut the rate a half-percentage point at a meeting next week and reduce it to as low as 11 percent by the end of next year.
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