Brazil, Petrobas, Investment Grade, Soya Exports, Shipbuilding and Consumer Demand - We Have Take-Off!

Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, continues to drill away and is now about halfway through its offshore Carioca deposit according to Mines and Energy Minister Edison Lobao said. Carioca forms part of Brazil's new pre-salt region, which lies beneath 2,000 meters of water and as much as 4,000 meters of seabed. The pre-salt region is also home to the Tupi field, which holds an estimated 8 billion barrels of oil and is the largest Western Hemisphere oil discovery in three decades. Lobao is also quoted as saying that Betrobras will need more time to determine the size of the Carioca field, so I suppose for the time being it's just a question of "on we go with the drilling".




Following up on my post about oil rigs earlier in the week, Petrobras have also announced plans to lease 146 Brazilian-built ships over 6 years to support offshore oil exploration and production. The purchases will be paid for in part with some of the $50 billion Petrobras has earmarked for investment on Brazilian oil equipment over the next four years. It is Petrobras' intention to offer long-term leases to companies that agree to build the ships in Brazil with 70 percent to 80 percent local material.

Petrobras expects to spend $112 billion on expansion in the 2008-2012 period, helping support efforts by the government, its controlling shareholder, to maintain GDP growth rates of 5 percent or more a year. The ship-building plan is part of an industrial policy program which was announced by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva earlier last week.

To boost shipbuilding in Brazil, Petrobras is helping finance the construction of new shipyards and the renovation of old facilities, including yards in Rio Grande in Brazil's south and in Suape, near the northeastern port city of Recife.

In the 1970s, Brazil was the world's second-largest shipbuilder. Its industry was almost wiped out by the oil shocks of the 1980s, debt defaults and inflation. A key plank in Lula's first-term victory in 2002 was revitalization of the shipbuilding industry. A $3 billion plan for tankers is already under way.

Clearly this rapid expansion is being financed by the ongoing commodities boom, and sustainability will depend with some high degree of sensitivity on the evolution of that boom. Brazilian exports have tripled since President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took office in January 2003 on rising world demand for soybeans, iron-ore, beef and cars. The economy expanded 5.4 percent in 2007, the fastest rate in three years, buoyed by rising exports and falling interest rates.

Obviously were there to be a negative commodities shock caused by a rapid slowdown in global growth and large scale capacity overhangs then all of this could go the same way as the 1908s boom, but there are reasons for thinking that this time round - and despite a possible short term slowdown in global growth in 2009 and a temporary downward adjustment in commodity prices - that the mid- to longer-term outlook (5 to 10 year horizon) is pretty bullish. I have elaborated on some of the relevant points in this article/post.

Also Bloomberg today have a very interesting interview with Roberto Egydio Setubal, head of Brazil's second-biggest non-government bank (Banco Itau Holding Financeira). Setubal said his nation is in a "transformation" that's creating the best conditions for business he's ever seen.

Brazil, Latin America's largest economy, has broken a cycle of boom and bust because of rising commodity exports and will enjoy sustainable annual growth of 4 percent to 5 percent, Setubal said in an interview this week in Sao Paulo. An investment-grade rating granted by Standard & Poor's last month will make Brazil a magnet for foreign investors.

Setubal is expanding abroad and at home, capitalizing on the 31 percent rise in Brazil's real against the dollar since May 2006, the collapse of inflation from almost 5,000 percent in 1994 to 5 percent now, and losses at global competitors. He's opening offices in the Middle East and Asia, hiring bankers from Deutsche Bank AG and Merrill Lynch & Co. and looking to buy Brazilian assets that may get dumped by foreign firms at discount prices.

``I don't see Brazil going back,'' the 53-year-old chief executive officer said at his office in Sao Paulo. ``The strong currency and investment grade are here to stay.''

Brazil's $1.07 trillion economy grew 5.4 percent in 2007, the fastest in three years. Controlled inflation led the central bank to cut the benchmark interest rate to as low as 11.25 percent in September, encouraging people and companies to borrow record amounts and boosting profit at Brazilian banks. Lending has increased every month since February 2004 to 992.7 billion reais ($600.8 billion) in March.



Brazil, the biggest debtor among emerging markets for decades, became a net foreign creditor in January after international reserves surged to a record $195.8 billion.

Brazil was the third-biggest market for initial public offerings globally in 2007, according to Bloomberg data. This year, only three companies went public, reflecting the reduced appetite for risk by international investors. Foreign investors bought 75 percent of the shares sold in public offerings in Brazil last year and 49 percent of the ones sold this year, according to the local stock exchange, Bovespa.

``This is a big change in Brazil,''Setubal said. ``Politicians used to believe spending was very popular and nowadays they learned that stable prices is much more popular.''

Update Tuesday 20 May 2008

I another "sign of the times" piece of news Petroleo have today passed both Microsoft and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China to become the world's sixth-largest company by market value.

Petrobras, as Brazil's state-controlled oil producer is known, climbed 3.8 percent to 50 reais, pushing its capitalization to 487.9 billion reais ($295.6 billion), according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Microsoft, which yesterday revived the possibility of purchasing Yahoo! Inc., fell 1.8 percent to $29.46, lowering its overall value to $274 billion. ICBC's A shares listed in Shanghai rose 0.2 percent to 6.22 yuan. The market value of the world's largest bank is 2.02 trillion yuan ($289.3 billion).

Six of the top 10 companies by market value are energy or mining companies, while three are from China.

Petrobras, which has seen its market value quadruple since 2004, is worth 41 percent less than Exxon Mobil, the world's largest company at $498.6 billion. By overtaking Microsoft, Petrobras also becomes the third-largest company in the hemisphere after Exxon and General Electric.

Brazil Retail Sales March 2008

Brazil's retail sales rose 11.4 percent in March, capping the strongest quarter on record, as a credit and investment boom fuels what is Latin America's largest economy. The March gain was led by computer and office equipment sales, the national statistics agency said today in Rio de Janeiro. That put the quarterly expansion at 12 percent, the most since the agency began records in 2000.



Policy makers last month raised the overnight rate a half- point to 11.75 to rein in inflation. Economists are predicting the central bank will increase lending rates further to 13.25 by year end, according to the median forecast in a central bank survey of 100 financial institutions published this week.

Brazilian consumer prices rose 0.55 percent in April, the most in 2008 to date. The annual rate of inflation was 5.04 percent last month, above the mid-point of the central bank's target of 4.5 percent target plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Petrobas Deep Sea Drilling Capacity

Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, has reportedly leased about 80 percent of the world's deepest-drilling offshore rigs to explore prospects including the Western Hemisphere's biggest discovery in decades. Petrobras is hiring rigs that can drill in at least 3,000 meters (9,800 feet) of water according to Chief Executive Officer Jose Sergio Gabrielli. The world has 21 such vessels, according to Rigzone.com, which tracks the offshore drilling industry.


Petrobras is reportedly negotiating for as many as 17 more vessels to probe the Tupi discovery and neighboring fields. The company already controls almost seven times as much capacity as the next biggest user of rigs that can drill in 7,500 feet of water. U.S. and European oil companies are likely to have to pay $50,000 more per day to lease deepwater rigs during the next three years because Petrobras has already contracted for so much of the worldwide fleet. Such units are designed to cope with high seas and hold equipment needed to bore beneath the seafloor and identify oil and gas deposits as much as 6 miles below the ocean surface.

Petrobras has signed leases this year for six deepwater rigs, more than twice as many as any other producer, according to Dahlman Rose. The contracts have an average duration of five years and four months at rates of $410,000 to $580,000 a day.

Petrobras plans to start pumping oil in the first quarter of 2009 from Tupi, the biggest find in the Americas since Mexico's 1976 discovery of the Cantarell field in the Gulf of Mexico. Petrobras also is evaluating as many as seven nearby fields, including the Carioca prospect, according to Gabrielli who said Petrobras began signing multiyear drilling leases as far back as 2004 because it foresaw a shortage of deepwater vessels.

Well done Petrobras.

Brazil Inflation April 2008

Brazilian consumer prices had their biggest increase in four months in April because of higher food costs. Consumer prices, as measured by the government's benchmark IPCA index, climbed 0.55 percent last month from 0.48 percent in March, the government's statistics agency said in a report distributed today in Rio de Janeiro. Brazil's inflation rate in the 12 months through April was 5.04 percent.






Brazil's central bank policy makers increased the benchmark interest rate for the first time in three years last month in an attempt to contain inflation. Inflation is emerging as a threat to economic stability after years of ``quiescence,'' and officials must be wary of policies that stoke consumer prices, the International Monetary Fund's deputy chiefJohn Lipsky said yesterday.

``This inflation speed-up must be taken seriously as it creates potentially significant challenges to economic stability,'' John Lipsky, the IMF's first deputy managing director, said in a speech in New York today. A return to 1970s-style high inflation and rising price expectations ``cannot be discarded out of hand,'' he said.

While the surge in energy and other commodity prices is the main cause of the danger, low central bank interest rates and a falling dollar are also contributing, Lipsky said.

Brazil's food prices climbed 1.29 percent in April from the previous month, up from the 0.89 percent increase in March. The central bank targets inflation of 4.5 percent plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Brazil Government To Auction Rice in An Attempt To Stabilise The Price

Brazil's state-owned National Supplies Co. will auction 55,000 metric tons of rice today, the country's ministry of agriculture said yesterday. The government currently has a stock of 1.4 million tons of rice, equivalent to 10 percent of Brazil's annual consumption. The stocks to be auctioned are held in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina states.

The measure is an attempt to keep prices down and establish a reference price for rice, the statement said, citing Paulo Morceli, basic foods manager of Conab, as the supplies company is known. According to information on the Conab Web site, the rice will be auctioned at 28 reais ($16.98) for a 50-kilogram bag.

The most recent decision of the Brzilian government is just one more example of the way national governments are coming under pressure to offer a response to what is now a global problem: the rising demand for energy and agricultural products. One of the obvious reasons for the sharp rise in demand for agricultural products is the rise in living standards of much of the planet's population when coupled with the fact that food consumption forms a much greater part of the extra income earned in a poor country than it does in a rich one. As a rough and ready rule, the poorer the country the greater the share of every extra dollar earned which will be spent on food.

The poorest of the world’s poor are the 1.1 billion people with income of less than a dollar a day. Around 700 million—almost two-thirds—of these people live in rice-growing countries of Asia. Rice, the dominant staple in Asia, accounts for more than 40% of the calorie consumption of most Asians. Poor people spend as much as 30–40% of their income on rice alone. Ensuring sufficient supplies of rice that is affordable for the poor is thus crucial to poverty reduction. Given this, the current sharp increase in rice price is a major cause for concern.
International Rice Reasearch Institute

Rice As An Example of What is a Global Problem

Thailand's benchmark 100 percent B grade white rice was quoted at a record high of more than $1,000 per tonne recently as a result of constrained supply and rising demand as governments in one rice producing country after another consider taking steps to restrain exports. The price was up from around $950 per tonne a week earlier and $383 per tonne in January. Thailand is the world's number one rice exporter and exports almost twice as much rice as India, its nearest rival.

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In fact Thailand produces about 22 million tons of milled rice annually and exports about 10 million tons. The sharp spike in prices was produced by a report from a World Bank official earlier in the week, and prices did subsequently fall back again after Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee siad reassuring words to the effect that Thailand has no plans to limit rice exports.

``If a key exporter like this limits foreign sales, it would be very much like Saudi Arabia reducing oil exports,'' said James Adams, vice president of the bank's East Asia and Pacific department.

Several of the world's food producers - including Egypt, Vietnam, China and India - have recently placed restrictions and limits on food exports in an attempt to contain domestic prices and to reduce protests from urban consumers. Brazil - which this year should harvest an 11.9 million ton rice crop, up from 11.3 million last season - was busy backtracking at the end of last week on an earlier decision to restrict exports. Brazil's Agriculture Minister Reinhold Stephanes followed the example of his Thai counterpart and stated that Brazil would not, in the end, curb exports. Pakistan is also stepping up to the plate in what has virtually become a global emergency and has stressed it has plans to export 2.5 million metric tons this year, according to farm minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali last week.


Vietnam, however, which is the world's third-biggest rice exporter (after Thailand and India), is going to go ahead and reduce rice shipments by 11 percent this year to 4 million tons to ensure supplies and attempt to curb inflation that is its highest in more than a decade (see more on Vietnam in this post). In doing this Vietnam is following in the footsteps of the world's number two rice exporter - India - whol last month put significant restrictions on the export of rice.

Indonesia, which is the world's third-largest rice producer (as opposed to exporter), also intends to hold back surplus rice from export this year in order to bolster domestic stockpiles, according to President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono speaking on April 18. Export restrictions are particularly threatening to the large rice importers whose populations ofetn depend of the staple for their basic food supply. The Philippines was the world's largest largest importer last year, followed by Nigeria. The Philippines received offers for only two-thirds of the grain it sought to buy on April 17.

Rice is in fact - after wheat - the world's second cereal product. At the beginning of the 1990s, annual production was around 350 million tons and by the end of the century it had reached 410 million tons. World production totaled 395 million tons of milled rice in 2003, compared with 387 million tons in 2002. This reduction in total output which occured around the turn of the century is largely explained by the strong pressure which have been placed on land and water resources, which led to a decrease of seeded areas in some Western and Eastern Asian countries.

Production is geographically concentrated in Western and Eastern Asia, and these retgions now account for more than 90 percent of world output. China and India, between them host over a third of the global population and supply over half of the world's rice. Brazil is the most important non-Asian producer, followed by the United States. Italy ranks first in Europe.


Growth in rice production has, however, been far from linear. Historically, production in ex-Japan Asia has increased steadily but at the end of the 1990s Asian output started to stagnate and in particular in China where rice areas have declined as a consequence of water scarcity and competition from more profitable (oleaginous) crops.

The international trade in rice is estimated between 25 and 27 million tons per year, which is only a very small part (5-6 percent) of total world production., and this makes the international rice market one of the smallest in the world when compared with other grain markets such as wheat (113 million tons) and corn (80 million tons). It also means that the price level is very sensitive to comparatively small changes in the level of exports coming from some key exporters. As can be seen from the chart below, global stocks of rice have declined substantially since the turn of the century. While in part this can be explained by product market efficiencies and the sustainability of lower inventories, it does mean that the sensitivity of the traded rice price to any supply side products has risen considerably of late. Also of note is the way in which stocks of rice have fallen inside China, reflecting the problems the country is having in finding the food to meet the needs produced by the rising living standards of its population (with pressure to transfer land from rice production to other crops or to commercial uses).

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Besides the traditional main exporters (Thailand, Vietnam, India and Pakistan), a relatively important but still limited part of the rice which is traded worldwide now comes from developed countries in Mediterranean Europe and the United States. There are two major forces behind this: new food habits in developed countries and new market niches in developing countries.


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As we have seen, rapid eceonomic growth across Asia is now putting enormous pressure on food prices. Consumer prices in China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, soared 8.7 percent in February, the fastest pace in 11 years. In Thailand, inflation is running at 5.3% (March) but this is still enough to worry the government, while in Vietnam, inflation jumped to 19.4 percent this month, the fastest pace since July 1995. Vietnamese food prices jumped 30.6 percent from a year ago, with the component including rice leaping 30.1 percent from March 2007 and 10.5 percent from February 2008.


The Food and Agriculture Organization said in February that 36 nations including China face food emergencies this year. World rice stockpiles may total 72.1 million metric tons by end of July, the lowest since 1984, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.

Prices of agricultural commodities are also being driven by investors looking for alternatives as the dollar and stocks drop. Global investments in commodities rose almost 33 percent to $175 billion last year, according to Barclays Capital. The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 raw materials climbed to a record on Feb. 29 and is up 16 percent so far this year.

But not everyone wants to restrain exports. Rubens Silveira commercial director of Rio Grande do Sul state's Rice Institute said the state - Brazil's No.1 rice grower - should export about 10 percent of this years crop at current prices, and argued that these exports will both help support domestic prices and provide incentives to producers to invest in improving output. Mainstream economists tend to agree with him:

``Limiting exports is pure politics and bad economics since export controls destroy the incentive of farmers to plant more rice,'' Nobel laureate Gary Becker, an economist at the University of Chicago, said in an interview. ``But governments tend to favor the urban workers over the farmers, since urban groups are more politically active.''

And it isn't only rice that is under pressure. Wheat prices are also rising fast. Wheat for July delivery was trading at around $8.1750 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade last week, down from the February peak, but still up 62 percent in the past year. Global wheat production is expected to rise 6.8 percent in the 2008-09 season as record prices spur farmers to sow more, the International Grains Council said last week. Wheat output is expected to climb to 645 million tons from 604 million tons this season, according to the London-based council. Inventories are forecast to gain 12 percent to 128 million tons, led by an increase in the U.S.

Global wheat production will advance approximately 6 percent in 2008 over 2007 - to an all-time high of 640 million metric tons - as record prices spur farmers to grow more according to Rabobank estimates. That is 37 million metric tons up on output in 2007 . Plantings will also gain 5 percent and global stockpiles will rise 9 percent they suggest. But then we might like to note that even with a 6% growth rate in output (which is no mean rate of increase) prices have still risen by 62 percent. This gives us some measure of the scale of the problem.


The prices of wheat, corn, rice and soybeans have all risen to record levels this year on shrinking global stockpiles and rising demand from the food, feed and biofuel industries. The rally has meant higher costs for everything from Italian pasta to Japanese noodles, and spurred street protests from Haiti to Ivory Coast.

``We have been neglecting our basic rice production infrastructure and research and development for 15 years,'' said Robert Zeigler, director-general of the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines. ``

India's output is increasing rapidly, but so is demand there, as high rates of economic growth boost incomes. Indian wheat output may climb to 76.8 million tons this year, according to India's agriculture secretary PK Mishra. That's up on the 74.8 million tons estimated in February and up from 75.8 million tons last year. Indian rice output is also expected to rise to a record 95.7 million tons, from the 94.1 million tons estimated on Feb. 7. That's 2.5 percent more than the 93.6 million tons produced a year earlier, but still far from enough to stabilise Indian wholesale prices which are now running at the fastest pace in nearly three years.



I have a much fuller study of the whole issue of global living standards, population growth and agricultural output in my "Food Prices, Farmland, Global Rebalancing and Rural Labour Shortages" post on the Demography Matters blog.