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Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Brazil Coffee Scarcity Looms

Again from Bloomberg:

October rains came too late for trees in Brazil's prime coffee-growing region to recover from the driest winter in two decades. Few of the plants have flowered properly, meaning next season's harvest will be meager.

Forecasters say output in the world's largest coffee- producing nation will fall to a four-year low. That has pushed up futures prices by 10 percent in the past month to $1.2265 a pound on the New York Board of Trade. Prices may rise to as much as $1.35 a pound in coming months as farmers like Oliveira hold back supplies.

From May to September, Guaxupe received only 80.6 millimeters (3.2 inches) of rain, compared with 250 millimeters a year earlier, according to Cooxupe's Web site. The rainfall was the lowest since 1985.

Given the forecast drop in production, Cooxupe is advising farmers to sell the minimum from this year's harvest, says Mario Ferraz de Araujo, another of the cooperative's agronomists.

``We try to show them how to manage the sales to avoid financial difficulties later,'' says Araujo, 43. ``The farmers have become more aware of the advantage of selling at the right time.''

Global warming may lead to recurrent droughts, reducing world supplies of Arabica, says Jose Francisco Pereira, general director at Fazenda Monte Alegre, Brazil's third-largest coffee farm. That would lead roasters to increase Robusta coffee, which is more resistant to heat and drought, in their blends, Pereira says. The biggest producer of Robusta coffee is Vietnam, followed by Brazil and Indonesia.

Brazil 2006 CPI Forecast Raised (Slightly)

According to Bloomberg Brazilian economists have increased their 2006 inflation forecast for a fifth week because of a rise in the cost of food.

Consumer prices in Brazil, Latin America's biggest economy, are forecast to rise 3.15 percent through the end of this year, more than a previous estimate of 3.08 percent, according to the median projection of about 100 economists in a central bank survey taken Nov. 24 and released today.

Brazil's monthly inflation, as measured by the government's IPCA-15 consumer price index, rose 0.37 percent in the 30 days through Nov. 13, compared with a 0.29 percent increase in the month ended Oct. 11, the National Statistics Agency said on Nov. 24.

``This hiccup in the prices of food will likely be reversed by yearend, reinforcing the view that the central bank will keep the current pace of rate cuts at its next policy meeting this week,'' Solange Srour, chief economist at Mellon Global Investment Brazil, said. She expects the central bank to lower the benchmark overnight rate a half-percentage point to 13.25 percent at its Nov. 29 policy meeting.

Brazilian economists also raised their 12-month inflation forecast to 4.17 percent from a previous estimate of 4.13 percent, the survey showed. They held 2007 inflation forecast at 4.1 percent. The central bank has an inflation target of 4.5 percent for 2006, 2007 and 2008.

``As the inflation outlook is still benign for next year and economic growth is moderate, monetary easing should continue in 2007,'' Srour said in a phone interview from Rio de Janeiro.

Brazil's economy will expand 2.94 percent this year, according to the survey, compared with the previous estimate of 2.95 percent. Economists predict growth will quicken to 3.5 percent in 2007.

The economists estimated the Brazilian currency will end this year weaker than previously forecast, with the real at 2.16 per dollar, compared with an earlier estimate of 2.15 per dollar, the survey showed. The currency, which traded at 2.1715 at 9:42 a.m. New York time, has fallen 1.3 percent this month, the second-worst performance of the 16 most-traded currencies.

The economists also raised their 2006 foreign direct investment forecast to $15.9 billion from $15.6 billion the previous week.

Sunday, November 26, 2006

Brazil's Inflation

Brazil's inflation rate rose to an 8-month high of of 0.37% in November, while the y-o-y rate dropped to 2.99%, the lowest since 1999. This certainly takes the pressure off the central bank on interest rate policy:

Brazil's monthly inflation rate rose to an 8-month high through mid-November as the cost of food items such as meat and chicken soared.

Consumer prices, as measured by the government's IPCA-15 price index, rose 0.37 percent in the 30 days through Nov. 13, compared with a 0.29 percent increase in the previous month ended Oct. 11, Brazil's National Statistics Agency said today on its Web site.

The inflation rate is still low enough to allow the central bank to keep cutting its benchmark lending rate, said Joel Bogdanski, a senior economist at Banco Itau Holding Financeira SA. Annual inflation slowed to 2.99 percent in the 12 months through mid-November, the lowest since June 1999, from 3.26 percent at the end of October.

The central bank has trimmed the benchmark lending rate 6 percentage points in the past 14 months to 13.75 percent, the lowest in at least two decades. Bogdanski expects policy makers to cut the rate a half-percentage point at a meeting next week and reduce it to as low as 11 percent by the end of next year.

Friday, November 24, 2006

OECD Brazil Survey

The OECD has a new survey out on Brazil. Bloomberg have a rough summary here:

"Brazil's economy will slide further behind its peers unless the government limits spending, especially on pensions, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said today in a report."

Of course the interesting question that this raises is who exactly Brazil's peers are?

If we look at the key demographic indicators the counry which most resembles Brazil in its present profile is Turkey. Both have fertility levels which are rapidly approaching replacement level - and of course may well soon follow the global pattern of below replacement fertility - since both currently have a 2.4 TFR (and dropping fast). In terms of life expectancy Brazil is around 71 and Turkey 72, and of course these ages are rising comparatively rapidly as economic conditions improve. As far as median age goes both countries are now entering the age range during which the phenomenon known as the 'demographic dividend' can be expected to operate (Brazil 27.81, Turkey 27.7, for the importance of median ages in macroeconomic analysis see this post here). So the similarity at this level between these two countries is in fact striking and remarkable. Turkey in recent years has enjoyed far stronger rates of economic growth when compared to Brazil, but it is not clear to what extent the 'anchor' of the EU accession process (and the consequent surge in domestic investment) has been responsible for this, and equally how this process might be affected by any distancing between Turkey and the EU which could result from 'enlargement fatigue' or a worst case scenario in Iraq might impact on this.

In cultural terms the countries which most resemble Brazil would of course be the other two Latin American 'tigers' Chile and Argentina. And again, these countries, possibly for different reasons, have enjoyed rather higher growth rates than Brazil. So in this sense the OECD may well be right to describe Brazil as something of a laggard. The key question is just how long this position will continue.

In these terms the OECD report is revealing. At a superficial level the OECDs key point would seem sound enough:

``Brazil's growth performance needs to improve to close a widening income gap relative'' to other countries in the group, the OECD said in the report. ``Despite reforms implemented since 1998, the deficit of the social-security regime for private- sector workers continues to rise.''

Clearly this is the case, though I doubt the validity of making a direct comparison with the OECD 30 at this point. Brazil is a relatively poor developing country, it is starting on the round to becoming a developed economy, but this road is likely to be a long and hard one. As has already been noted the population is still comparatively young - Brazil is just entering the demographic dividend range - and the still fairly large young cohorts undoubtedly place special pressures on the labour market, and exert a somewhat negative influence on employment rates and income growth. This position will to some extent correct itself automatically as the shape of the pyramid changes, however the OECD is undoubtedly right in stressing the need for a balanced policy environment so as to leverage this process to the maximum.

Brazil is the biggest debtor among emerging market nations with about 1.06 trillion reais ($494.2 billion) in public federal debt in October. The country's 2.5 percent annual growth rate since 1995 lags the global average by more than a third.

Obviously it is clear that Brazil needs to get a better hold on its public finances and that increased taxes are not the best solution, but I do feel that both the above statistics are a little misleading since in the first place Barzil is a large country and hence proportionally the debt is not as big as this makes it seem, and secondly Brazil has only really started to take off in the last couple of years, so the average growth rate since 1995 is not a particularly informative number.

In fact the OECD says the following:

Fiscal performance remains strong. The consolidated primary budget surplus target – which has been raised repeatedly since 1999 to ensure the sustainability of the public debt dynamics – continues to be met and sometimes exceeded by wide margins. The net public debt has fallen in relation to GDP since the 2003 peak and has now stabilised, albeit at the comparatively high level of around 50% of GDP by emerging market standards. The government has been able to sustain fiscal adjustment, despite the limited room for manoeuvre caused by a ratcheting up of current spending over the years and Brazil’s notorious budget rigidities. Nevertheless, fiscal adjustment has been achieved at the expense of cutting back on public investment and by increasing the tax burden. The revenue-to-GDP ratio rose by about 5 percentage points during 2000-05 to nearly 37.5% in 2005 – a level that is one of the highest among countries with comparable income levels. A durable reduction in public indebtedness on the back of a retrenchment of current expenditure, rather than tax hikes, would serve to facilitate a swifter fall in real interest rates and to permit the channelling of domestic saving to finance growth enhancing investment. It would also lay the groundwork for removing distortions in the tax system, including by broadening tax bases.

So progress is being made on the deficit front, and the real issue is about the structure of public spending with more emphasis needed on infrastructural investment rather than on current spending. The politics of this are, however, complex.

Also on the monetary policy front the OECD is fairly positive:

The perception that the authorities are committed to a monetary policy framework combining inflation targeting and a flexible exchange-rate regime appears to be suitably well entrenched. The central bank enjoys de facto, but not yet de jure, operational autonomy. The policy regime has been working well, delivering continuous disinflation since 2003 and anchoring expectations. Notwithstanding these achievements, which should not be underestimated, the conduct of monetary policy is complicated by cumbersome regulations on the allocation of credit to selected sectors, especially agriculture and housing, including through mandated saving arrangements. Compulsory reserve requirements on commercial banks are also burdensome for a variety of deposit categories, although most countries that have adopted inflation targeting as the framework for monetary policymaking have now reduced or eliminated such requirements. These restrictions act as an implicit tax on the financial sector, against the backdrop of an already relatively high tax burden on financial transactions, including that of the bank debit tax (CPMF).

So changes are needed:

Consideration should be given to gradually removing the extant directed credit and reducing compulsory reserve requirements so as to improve the efficiency of the financial sector and adequately reward long-term saving, an aspect of the problem that is often overlooked. The favourable domestic macroeconomic environment, with falling inflation and improving growth prospects, appears propitious for further liberalisation in this area. At the same time, the consolidation of macroeconomic stability not only creates a need to move forward but also provides an opportunity to go beyond the current policy achievements as a means of eliminating the remaining distortions inherited from the pre-stabilisation period. The payoff from reform in this area can be considerable in terms of reducing Brazil’s stubbornly high real rates of interest, which weigh heavily on growth.

Essentially the real rate of interest needs to come down.